Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 7.727811 8.877153 10.117361 11.552427 13.164450 14.916502 16.961995
2026-02-08 5.933987 7.461122 9.239844 11.453856 14.124129 17.228453 21.097352
2026-02-15 4.992451 6.657963 8.695941 11.353085 14.703577 18.763704 24.028851
2026-02-22 4.340577 6.102953 8.356414 11.417139 15.429081 20.467840 27.227559
2026-03-01 3.938807 5.795337 8.259962 11.725162 16.417022 22.487123 30.860843
2026-03-08 3.443089 5.294136 7.842045 11.544614 16.714346 23.591805 33.329621
2026-03-15 2.935264 4.712458 7.246522 11.048359 16.515343 23.983648 34.821417
2026-03-22 2.735263 4.555737 7.230169 11.351575 17.425382 25.906802 38.466544
2026-03-29 2.538749 4.380537 7.164692 11.565858 18.204029 27.666455 41.946363
2026-04-05 2.294689 4.103661 6.918065 11.481903 18.525900 28.773402 44.528399
2026-04-12 2.067701 3.829957 6.649880 11.337199 18.734370 29.707908 46.881307
2026-04-19 1.898052 3.634097 6.486349 11.338003 19.153823 30.959022 49.737333
2026-04-26 1.758349 3.479542 6.382359 11.433534 19.736658 32.499964 53.125935
2026-05-03 1.601058 3.277871 6.182763 11.356042 20.035635 33.615937 55.913570
2026-05-10 1.456688 3.083812 5.977721 11.249037 20.270020 34.627256 58.562528
2026-05-17 1.354176 2.957668 5.879989 11.315026 20.786791 36.098151 61.980485
2026-05-24 1.295700 2.910731 5.919292 11.619740 21.715864 38.263159 66.578994
2026-05-31 1.176297 2.729731 5.697328 11.440931 21.802129 39.051181 68.978183
2026-06-07 1.029810 2.476958 5.318968 10.948524 21.308499 38.848913 69.736836
2026-06-14 0.991198 2.447946 5.367471 11.249359 22.231733 41.054398 74.557450
2026-06-21 0.945154 2.397987 5.370295 11.461925 23.003078 43.027217 79.052908
2026-06-28 0.871569 2.278931 5.225051 11.378642 23.226353 44.061015 81.987828
2026-07-05 0.798563 2.153147 5.055574 11.235087 23.326658 44.878601 84.573587